Climate variability
Fluctuations in climate conditions around their average over different spatial and temporal scales.
Example
El Niño can influence year-to-year temperatures while long-term human-caused warming continues.
The catch
Natural variability does not negate a sustained trend.
Related terms
Albedo, Atmospheric lifetime, Carbon budget, Carbon dioxide, Climate change, Climate feedback
In more depth
Climate variability, explained.
Climate variability is why temperature records zigzag as they climb. Ocean and atmosphere exchange heat in cycles such as El Niño, and large volcanic eruptions can cool the planet briefly by filling the upper atmosphere with reflective particles. Climatologists average over decades to separate the long-term signal from these swings.
The classic misuse is choosing a start date that flatters an argument. Begin a short trend in an unusually hot year and warming appears to stall, which is how earlier claims of a pause in warming were built. Climate change also alters variability itself. As some extremes become more frequent, a 'normal' range drawn from the past may underestimate today's risks.