Temperature overshoot
A period during which global warming temporarily exceeds a specified level before returning below it.
Example
Some scenarios pass 1.5°C and later fall back through large-scale CO₂ removal.
The catch
Some impacts during the overshoot, such as species losses, may persist after temperatures decline.
Related terms
Global warming, Albedo, Atmospheric lifetime, Carbon budget, Carbon dioxide, Climate change
In more depth
Temperature overshoot, explained.
Bringing temperatures back down after an overshoot relies mainly on net-negative CO₂ emissions, meaning the world removes more carbon dioxide than it emits for years on end. That makes every overshoot pathway a bet on carbon dioxide removal working at a scale not yet demonstrated.
IPCC AR6 sorts scenarios by whether they exceed a warming level and by how much, with labels such as no or limited overshoot. The height of the peak and the time spent above the limit both matter, since each extra year raises the risk of crossing a climate tipping point and adds to sea-level rise that continues for centuries. When a plan mentions overshoot, ask for the peak temperature, the years spent above the limit and the removal volumes it assumes.