Climate projection
A simulated future response of the climate system to an assumed emissions or concentration pathway.
Example
Different policy and development choices produce different projections of temperature and rainfall.
The catch
Always check the scenario, region, period and uncertainty range.
Related terms
Albedo, Atmospheric lifetime, Carbon budget, Carbon dioxide, Climate change, Climate feedback
In more depth
Climate projection, explained.
A climate projection answers an if-then question. If emissions follow a stated pathway, the climate is likely to respond within a stated range. The IPCC's main set of pathways runs from the lowest to the highest emissions, and for global temperature the gap between them outgrows the disagreement between models as the century goes on.
The choice of pathway dominates the range in the long run, differences from one climate model to another matter throughout, and climate variability dominates the near term. Treating the highest-emissions pathway as 'business as usual' is a common error, since policies already in place point to lower emissions than that pathway assumes.